Monday, January 24, 2011

This is Progress?

Apollo program…
So, on May 25, 1961, JFK does his little “put a man on the moon” speech. (Granted, the program was already started before this speech. In fact, it got started during Eisenhower’s administration. But, it really got moving after this speech.) On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin land on the moon. The entire Apollo program cost $170B (in 2005 dollars). That goes even past 1969 all the way to 1975 and included 6 moon landings. So, in 8-10 years, after deciding to start the program, we put a man on the moon. In the 1960’s.

Constellation Program…
On Jan. 14, 2004, Bush gives his “go back to the moon” speech. NASA estimated that the cost would be $230B (in 2004 dollars) through 2025. I think it’s safe to assume that the program would have exceeded that number by at least 50% (over 12 years of operation, the Space Shuttle program went over by 55%). So, that would put it at about $345B (2004 dollars). When Constellation was cancelled, they were thinking that they wouldn’t be able to put a man back on the moon before 2028.

Comparison…
So, in the 1960’s we put a man on the moon…
·         In 8 years
·         With technology 50 years older than today
·         For $170B

Fifty years later, we can’t put a man back on the moon… (something we’ve done before)
·         In three times the time (24 years)
·         With technology that’s many orders of magnitude better than in the 1960’s
·         For twice the cost ($340B)

This isn't progress. This is decline.

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